Last Sunday’s prelude day at Grafton served as a brilliant appetiser for what is to come over the July Carnival.
While the attractions and festivities were plentiful off the track, on the track the ‘big boys’ came to play.
There were some sharp betting moves in the features, with several runners getting crunched prior to start time.
Belfyer Prelude winner Small Town saw his opening quote of $9.50 slashed to an SP of $4 before saluting in style.
And the same can be said in the Cup prelude with Our Bambino ($9 into $3.90) from the flying Pat Murphy yard booking his ticket in Thursday’s Grafton Cup.
It was a gritty performance, running over Olympic Time who was brave in second after leading at a moderate clip.
The day was closed in style thanks to the Mary Lou trained Proverbial. She looked a class above on paper and just had to bring her A-game.
She let down with a blistering turn of foot to punch her ticket in the Listed Ramornie Handicap on Wednesday.
From the roar that went up after she saluted, she is set to be a very popular pick to win the feature.
This Sunday, it is all about the South Grafton Cup.
The South Grafton Cup, which was first run in 1914, is worth $80k and is run over 1600m under quality conditions.
In recent years, its importance has risen even further, with dual benefits for the winner.
Not only does the winner get a start in the Grafton Cup, but additionally qualifies for the Big Dance held at Randwick on Melbourne Cup Day.
A bumper field has been assembled and the class runners have drawn wide creating plenty of intrigue.
Luke Hovhanesian from theGreatTipOff.com has done the form and previewed the race in full.
Track Conditions
The surface is currently rated a Soft 6 and crystal-clear skies are expected leading into Sunday.
The track should have an improvement to the Soft 5 and potentially even Good 4 range depending on the irrigation by the track manager.
The running rail is out 3m, which historically sees the track play fairly with a slight advantage to horses drawn inside to middle barriers.
As the rail hasn’t moved from last Sunday many runners will edge off it as the day progresses.
Race 7 South Grafton Cup (1600m) (Big Dance Eligibility)
The Map – ( ) indicates the barrier draw
A very hard map to pick with most of these runners being versatile in racing patterns.
There are a few horses such as Space Tracker (7) and Purple Sector (13) dual nominated for this weekend and it becomes a real head-scratcher.
Both are drawn midfield or worse and this could have a drastic effect on the tempo of the race should they not run.
If the pre-mentioned runners do gain a start, then the tempo will be quick.
You have two proven front runners launching from wide gates and those inside will have to burn to keep them out.
However given they are likely to be scratched, I can see the race being run at a moderate tempo with Too Much Caviar (2), Cepheus (6) and Two Big Fari (10) all pushing forward.
Just behind them will be Circling (4), Nishikori (5) and Baby Rider (11).
Cotehele (1) will need to be positive if he wants to avoid being buried 4 back the fence and the same can be said for Barellan Bandit (3).
Ucalledit (12) and Criaderas (14) will have no choice but to drift back in the field and leave it for one late charge.
The Favourite
You can see why the early support has been for the John O’Shea gelding Cotehele.
A brilliant campaign so far this year and John has spaced out his campaign well to keep him on the fresh side.
He now gets stretched out over the mile but will have his doubters off some of his previous failures at the distance.
This is now elevated by drawing barrier 1 and where he might get to in the run.
Do they try to lead? With plenty of pace drawn wide this could be a death wish.
If they choose to take a sit, he might get buried 3 or 4 pairs back the fence.
I personally couldn’t get too involved at the current quote but if we saw a drift out to $5 late, he might be worth a play.
Free Horse Racing Tips
Baby Rider is my best-value bet of the weekend at $34.
This former French import is a Group 2 winner overseas and even contested an Arc D Triomphe as a 3YO.
He trialled outstanding heading into his first up run at Randwick over the 1400m before putting in a moderate effort.
He can be forgiven for that performance for several reasons and the savage drift out to $81 pre-start time gave the indication that his Grand Final was still to come.
There is no doubt he is still getting used to Australian racing, but he has panels on his rivals here on class alone.
The rise to 1610m is perfect, he flies second up (3:2-0-0) and Ashley Morgan retains the ride.
From barrier 11 he will have his work cut out for him, but if he manages to find a spot in the running, we could witness a star stayer being born.
Too Much Caviar ($13) enters this contest on the back of a solid performance at Randwick.
He handles all weather conditions and draws perfectly in barrier 2 to land on speed and be right in the thick of things.
Amy McLucas takes the ride, and she is building a formidable partnership with the Waterhouse / Bott stable.
He genuinely gets better the deeper he is into his campaign but off two trials and that first-up run, I am trusting the star trainers to have him peaking for this.
What will be the instructions from trainer John O’Shea with Cotehele ($3.40)?
He is very talented on his day but can be hit or miss at the barriers.
If he jumps well, he lands the leader’s back and can be right in the finish.
You will know your fate with him after the first 200m.
Rounding out my top 4 with some value in Circling ($81).
He is versatile in his racing pattern and has a sharp turn of foot.
He excels at the distance and 3rd up he is ready to peak.
Can add great value to the exotics.
1st Baby Rider
2nd Too Much Caviar
3rd Cotehele
4th Circling
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